McGrath RentCorp (McGrath RentCorp) Predictability Rank

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What is McGrath RentCorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

McGrath RentCorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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McGrath RentCorp (McGrath RentCorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » McGrath RentCorp (NAS:MGRC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MG8:Germany

Address

5700 Las Positas Road, Livermore, CA, USA, 94551-7800

Website

https://www.mgrc.com

McGrath RentCorp is a rental company. It is comprised of four reportable business segments: Modular building and portable storage segment (Mobile Modular), Electronic test equipment segment (TRS-RenTelco), Containment solutions for the storage of hazardous and non-hazardous liquids and solids segment (Adler Tanks) and Classroom manufacturing division selling modular classrooms in California (Enviroplex). The company generates its revenues majorily from the rental of its equipment on operating leases with sales of equipment occurring in the normal course of business.

Executives

Trease Kristina Van	officer: VP & Division Manager	5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
David M Whitney	officer: VP, Controller, PAO	5700 LOS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Elizabeth A Fetter	director	1400 MARINA WAY SOUTH, RICHMOND CA 94804
Philip B Hawkins	officer: VP & Division Manager	5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Tara Wescott	officer: Vice President Human Resources	C/O MCGRATH RENTCORP, 5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
John Lieffrig	officer: VP & Division Manager	C/O MCGRATH RENTCORP, 5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
John P Skenesky	officer: VP and Division Manager	5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Gilda Malek	officer: VP, Legal General Counsel	C/O MCGRATH RENTCORP, 5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Dennis P Stradford	director
Kimberly Ann Box	director	7157 TREELINE CT., GRANITE BAY CA 95746
Nicolas C Anderson	director	3100 ZINFANDEL DRIVE, STE. 450, RANCHO CORDOVA CA 95670
Stuart Templeton Porter	officer: VP & Division Manager	C/O MCGRATH RENTCORP, 5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Kay Dashner	officer: Senior Human Resources Advisor	5700 LAS POSITAS ROAD, LIVERMORE CA 94551
Morris Richard Smith	director	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 1300, DENVER CO 80202
Smita Conjeevaram	director	70 HERETOLD ROAD, BRONXVILLE NY 17708