Momentive Global (Momentive Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Momentive Global Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Momentive Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Momentive Global (Momentive Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Momentive Global Inc (NAS:MNTV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

One Curiosity Way, San Mateo, CA, USA, 94403

Website

https://www.surveymonkey.com

Momentive Global Inc, formerly SVMK Inc is a United States based company. It is engaged in providing survey software products and purpose-built solutions that enable organizations to engage with their key constituents, including their customers, employees and the markets they serve. It offers a cloud-based SaaS platform that helps individuals and organizations design and distribute surveys. Products offered by the company enable individuals and organizations of all sizes to collect and analyze People Powered Data.

Executives

Legion Partners Holdings, Llc	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Sagar Gupta	director	C/O MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC., ONE CURIOSITY WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Raymond T. White	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners, Llc	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners, L.p. Ii	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners, L.p. I	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners Asset Management, Llc	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Christopher S Kiper	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD, SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Legion Partners Special Opportunities, L.p. Xvii	director	12121 WILSHIRE BLVD., SUITE 1240, LOS ANGELES CA 90025
Clarence Ewell	officer: Chief Customer Officer	C/O MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC., ONE CURIOSITY WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Alexander J Lurie	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	235 SECOND STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Rebecca Cantieri	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O SVMK INC., ONE CURIOSITY WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Lora D Blum	officer: Sr VP, Gen Counsel & Secretary	C/O SVMK INC., ONE CURIOSITY WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Priyanka Carr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC., ONE CURIOSITY WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403
Cherie Buntyn	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O MOMENTIVE GLOBAL INC., ONE CURIOSITY WAY, SAN MATEO CA 94403