What is Modine Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Modine Manufacturing Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Modine Manufacturing Co (Modine Manufacturing Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1500 DeKoven Avenue, Racine, WI, USA, 53403-2552
Modine Manufacturing Co provides thermal management solutions to diversified markets and customers. The company provides engineered heat transfer systems and heat transfer components for use in on- and off-highway original equipment manufacturer (OEM) vehicular applications primarily in the United States. It offers powertrain cooling products, such as engine cooling assemblies, radiators, condensers, and charge air coolers; auxiliary cooling products, including power steering and transmission oil coolers.
Executives
| Michael B Lucareli |
officer: EVP, CFO |
1500 DEKOVEN AVE,, RACINE WI 53403 |
| Christopher William Patterson |
director |
613 NW 11TH AVE, PORTLAND OR 97209 |
| David J. Wilson |
director |
13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Suresh V Garimella |
director |
585 PURDUE MALL, WEST LAFAYETTE IN 47907 |
| William A Wulfsohn |
director |
ASHLAND INC., 50 EAST RIVERCENTER BLVD., COVINGTON KY 41011 |
| Eric D Ashleman |
director |
3100 SANDERS ROAD, SUITE 301, NORTHBROOK IL 60062 |
| Katherine Carolyn Harper |
director |
263 TRESSER BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Marsha C Williams |
director |
EQUITY OFFICE PROPERTIES, CHICAGO IL 60606 |
| Larry Oscar Moore |
director |
2104 CALVERTON LN SW, ATLANTA GA 30331 |
| Christine Y Yan |
director |
C/O CABOT CORPORATION, TWO SEAPORT LANE, SUITE 1300, BOSTON MA 02210 |
| Adrian Ian Peace |
officer: President, Performance Technol |
1500 DEKOVEN AVE., RACINE WI 53403 |
| Eric S Mcginnis |
officer: President, Climate Solutions |
200 STATE STREET, BELOIT WI 53511 |
| Brian Jon Agen |
officer: VP, Human Resources |
1500 DEKOVEN AVE., RACINE WI 53403 |
| Sylvia Ann Stein |
officer: VP, GC, Corp. Sec. and CCO |
1500 DEKOVEN AVE., RACINE WI 53403 |
| Neil David Brinker |
director, officer: President and CEO |
1625 SHARP POINT DRIVE, FORT COLLINS CO 80525 |
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