Morphic Holding (Morphic Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Morphic Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Morphic Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Morphic Holding (Morphic Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Morphic Holding Inc (NAS:MORF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

31Y:Germany 31Y:Germany

Address

35 Gatehouse Drive, A2, Waltham, MA, USA, 02451

Website

http://www.morphictx.com

Morphic Holding Inc is a biopharmaceutical company applying its insights into integrins to discover and develop a pipeline of oral small-molecule integrin therapeutics. Integrins are a target class with multiple approved injectable blockbuster drugs for the treatment of serious chronic diseases, including autoimmune, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases, fibrosis, and cancer.

Executives

William Devaul	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O MORPHIC HOLDING, INC., 35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, A2, WALTHAM MA 02451
Bruce Rogers	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O MORPHIC HOLDING, INC., 35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, A2, WALTHAM MA 02451
Marc Schegerin	officer: CFO and COO	ARQULE INC, 1 WALL ST FL6, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Praveen P. Tipirneni	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O MORPHIC HOLDING, INC.,, 35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE, A2, WALTHAM MA 02451
Farrell Robert E Jr	officer: VP Finance and Ops, Secretary	CAMBRIDGE DISCOVERY PARK, 100 ACORN PARK DRIVE, 5TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Joseph P Slattery	director	C/O TRANSENTERIX, INC., 635 DAVIS DRIVE, SUITE 300, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Martin Edwards	director	15 NEW ENGLAND EXECUTIVE PARK, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Timothy A Springer	director, 10 percent owner	36 WOODMAN ROAD, CHESTNUT HILL MA 02467
Peter Linde	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O MORPHIC HOLDING, INC., 35 GATEHOUSE DRIVE A2, WALTHAM ME 02451
Nisha Nanda	director	281 TRESSER BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901
Amir Nashat	director	10835 ROAD TO THE CURE, SUITE 205, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Omega Fund V Gp, L.p.	director	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Susannah Gray	director	10770 WATERIDGE CIRCLE SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Vikas Goyal	director	C/O SR ONE, LTD., 161 WASHINGTON ST., SUITE 500, EIGHT TOWER BRIDGE, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Otello Stampacchia	director	888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199