MP Materials (MP Materials) Predictability Rank

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What is MP Materials Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MP Materials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MP Materials Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MP Materials (MP Materials) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Metals & Mining » MP Materials Corp (NYSE:MP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MP:Mexico

Address

1700 S. Pavilion Center Drive, 8th Floor, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89135

Website

https://www.mpmaterials.com

MP Materials Corp is the largest producer of rare earth materials in the Western Hemisphere. The company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility, the only rare earth mining and processing site ofscale in North America.

Executives

Michael Stuart Rosenthal	officer: Chief Operating Officer	1700 S. PAVILION CENTER DR., SUITE 800, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
James H. Litinsky	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O MP MATERIALS CORP., 1700 S. PAVILION CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 800, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Jhl Capital Group Llc	other: See Remarks	1500 N. HALSTED ST., SUITE 200, CHICAGO IL 60642
Arnold W Donald	director	C/O CARNIVAL CORPORATION, 3655 N.W. 87TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33178
Daniel Allen Gold	director	6720 VIA AUSTI PARKWAY, SUITE 450, LAS VEGAS NV 89119
Qvt Financial Lp	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director by Deputization	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10106
Ryan Corbett	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1700 S. PAVILION CENTER DR., SUITE 800, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Duckworth Connie K	director	EIGHT WINGS ENTERPRISES, 77 STONE AGTE LANE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Andrew A. Mcknight	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	ONE MARKET PLAZA, SPEAR TOWER 42ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94123
Elliot Dean Hoops	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	1700 S. PAVILION CENTER DR., SUITE 800, LAS VEGAS NV 89135
Jhl Capital Group Holdings Two Llc	other: See Remarks	1500 N. HALSTED ST.,, SUITE 2000, CHICAGO IL 60642
Richard B Myers	director	C/O NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORPORATION, 2980 FAIRVIEW PARK DRIVE, FALLS CHURCH VA 22042
Randall J Weisenburger	director	C/O WASSERSTEIN PERELLA GROUP, 31 WEST 52ND ST 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Maryanne Lavan	director	6801 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Sheila Bangalore	officer: CSO and General Counsel	6720 VIA AUSTI PARKWAY, SUITE 450, LAS VEGAS NV 89119