What is Montage Resources Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Montage Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Montage Resources (Montage Resources) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
122 West John Carpenter Freeway, Suite 300, Irving, TX, USA, 75039
Montage Resources Corp is an exploration and production company with approximately 227,000 net effective undeveloped acres currently focused on the Utica and Marcellus Shales of southeast Ohio, West Virginia and North Central Pennsylvania. The company's only segments are oil and natural gas exploration and production.
Executives
| Burroughs Mark E Jr |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA STREET SUITE 4900 HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| D Martin Phillips |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA STREET, SUITE 4900, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Richard D Paterson |
director |
5 GREEWAY PLAZA SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77046 |
| Randall M Albert |
director |
5 PENN CENTER WEST, SUITE 401, PITTSBURGH PA 15276 |
| Swanson Douglas E Jr |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA, SUITE 4900, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Timothy J. Loos |
officer: SVP Accounting and Finance |
122 WEST JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY SUITE 300 IRVING TX 75039 |
| Matthew Rucker |
officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer |
713 MARKET DR, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114 |
| Michael L Hodges |
officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer |
C/O GULFPORT ENERGY CORP, 713 MARKET DR, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114 |
| Paul M Johnston |
officer: EVP & General Counsel |
777 POST OAK BLVD #650 HOUSTON TX 77056 |
| John K. Reinhart |
director, officer: President and CEO |
713 MARKET DR, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73114 |
| Oleg E Tolmachev |
other: Former EVP & COO |
2121 OLD GATESBURG ROAD SUITE 110 STATE COLLEGE PA 16803 |
| Michael Jennings |
director |
10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Robert L Zorich |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA, SUITE 4900, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Eugene I Davis |
director |
8540 GANDER CREEK DRIVE, MIAMISBURG OH 45342 |
| Todd Bart |
officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer |
2121 OLD GATESBURG ROAD, SUITE 110, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801 |
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