Marinus Pharmaceuticals (Marinus Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Marinus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marinus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Marinus Pharmaceuticals (Marinus Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Marinus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:MRNS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MRNS:Mexico 61Y:Germany

Address

100 Matsonford Road, Suite 500, 5 Radnor Corporate Center, Radnor, PA, USA, 19087

Website

https://www.marinuspharma.com

Marinus Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on developing and commercializing innovative therapeutics to treat epilepsy and neuropsychiatric disorders. Marinus manages the business in one segment, which is the identification and development of neuropsychiatric therapeutics. The Company is developing ganaxolone for multiple epilepsy and other neuropsychiatric indications, including adjunctive, or add-on, therapy for the treatment of drug-resistant focal onset seizures; status epilepticus; Fragile X Syndrome, and PCDH19-RE.

Executives

Christina Shafer	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	5 RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER, SUITE 500, 100 MATSONFORD ROAD, RADNOR PA 19087
Scott Braunstein	director	C/O ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3891 RANCHERO DRIVE, SUITE 150, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Steven Pfanstiel	officer: CFO	5 RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER STE 500, 100 MATSONFORD RD, RADNOR PA 19087
Joseph Hulihan	officer: Chief Medical Officer	5 RADNOR CORP CENTER SUITE 500, 100 MATSONFORD RD, RADNOR PA 19087
Martha E Manning	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Corp. Sec.	700 PENNSYLVANIA DR, EXTON PA 19341
Sarah B. Noonberg	director	331 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Marvin Johnson	director	C/O TREVENA, INC., 955 CHESTERBROOK BOULEVARD, STE. 110, CHESTERBROOK PA 19087
Elan Ezickson	director	AVEO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 75 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Charles Austin	director	5 RADNOR CORPORATE CENTER STE 500, 100 MATSONFORD RD, RADNOR PA 19087
Fischer Seth H.z.	director	C/O TRIUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Christine Berni Silverstein	director	C/O ABEONA THERAPEUTICS INC., 1330 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 33RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Santiago Arroyo	director	C/O MOMENTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 675 WEST KENDALL STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Sara Nochur	director	295 WOODCLIFF RD, NEWTON MA 02461
Nicole Vitullo	director, 10 percent owner	3030 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Edward F Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O POLYMEDIX, INC., 3701 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104