MusclePharm (MusclePharm) Predictability Rank

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What is MusclePharm Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MusclePharm Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MusclePharm (MusclePharm) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » MusclePharm Corp (OTCPK:MSLPQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6728 W. Sunset Road, Suite 130, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89118

Website

https://www.musclepharmcorp.com

MusclePharm Corporation is a performance lifestyle company. It develops, manufactures, markets and distributes branded nutritional supplements. It offers various types of powders, capsules, tablets and gels. Geographically, the firm has its business presence across the region of US and in the international market of which the US accounts for the majority of revenue. MusclePharm's Hybrid series products include Assault, Combat Protein Powder, BCAA 3:1:2, CLA Core, Fish Oil, Combat Crunch Protein Bars, glutamine, carnitine, Combat Crunch, Protein Crisp, Organic Protein, and Protein Cookie. The group sells its products to various fitness enthusiasts, such as professional, combat sport, weight training, bodybuilding, running, and various team and individual sports, and others.

Executives

Eric Chin	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1668 S. GARFIELD AVE., 2ND FLOOR, ALHAMBRA CA 91801
Paul W Karr	director	BRISTOL MEYERS SQUIBB CO, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Sabina Rizvi	officer: President & CFO	6728 W. SUNSET ROAD, SUITE 130, LAS VEGAS NV 89118
Michael David Heller	director	4500 PARK GRANADA, SUITE 202, CALABASAS CA 91302
Wynnefield Partners Small Cap Value Lp I	10 percent owner	450 SEVENTH AVENUE, SUITE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123
Donald Feagan	10 percent owner	2150 SOUTH 1300 EAST STREET, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Amerop Holdings, Inc.	10 percent owner	1800 BROADWAY, SUITE 100, BOULDER CO 80302
White Winston Select Asset Fund Series Fund Mp-18, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O WHITE WINSTON SELECT ASSET FUNDS, LLC, 265 FRANKLIN ST., SUITE 1702, BOSTON MA 02110
Robert P Mahoney	10 percent owner	4 DANIELS FARM ROAD, #305, TRUMBULL CT 06611
White Winston Select Asset Funds, Llc	10 percent owner	265 FRANKLIN STREET, SUITE 1702, BOSTON MA 02110
Todd M. Enright	10 percent owner	2150 SOUTH 1300 EAST STREET, SUITE 500, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Mark Blundell	10 percent owner	8 MACDONALD AVE, ARMOUK NY 10504
John J Desmond	director	10 GLEN HEAD ROAD, GLEN HEAD NY 11545
Wynnefield Small Cap Value Offshore Fund Ltd	10 percent owner	450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123
Wynnefield Capital Inc	10 percent owner	450 SEVENTH AVE, STE 509, NEW YORK NY 10123