Mueller Water Products, (Mueller Water Products,) Predictability Rank

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What is Mueller Water Products, Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mueller Water Products, Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Mueller Water Products, (Mueller Water Products,) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Mueller Water Products, Inc. (NYSE:MWA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JT5:Germany

Address

1200 Abernathy Road N.E., Suite 1200, Atlanta, GA, USA, 30328

Website

https://www.muellerwaterproducts.com

Mueller Water Products, Inc. is a U.S.-based company that manufactures and sells products and services used in the transmission, distribution, and measurement of water. The company operates in two segments Water Flow Solutions and Water Management Solutions. Water Flow Solutions' portfolio includes iron gate valves, specialty valves and service brass products. Water Management Solutions' portfolio includes fire hydrants, repair and installation, natural gas, metering, leak detection, and pressure management and control products and solutions. The company derives a majority of its revenue from the United states.

Executives

Lydia W Thomas	director	ALLMERICA FINANCIAL CORP, 440 LINCOLN ST, WORCESTER MA 01653
Mark J Obrien	director	3000 BAYPORT DRIVE, SUITE 1100, TAMPA FL 33607
Thomas J Hansen	director	3600 W. LAKE AVENUE, GLENVIEW IL 60026-1215
Michael T Tokarz	director	287 BOWMAN AVENUE, SUITE 331, PURCHASE NY 10577
Kenji Takeuchi	officer: SVP, Engineering	1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Chason A Carroll	officer: VP, General Counsel & Corp Sec	1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Niclas Ytterdahl	director	C/O MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS, INC., 1200 ABERNATHY ROAD, NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Paul Mcandrew	officer: SVP, Operations & Supply Chain	1200 ABERNATHY ROAD, NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Brian Slobodow	director	1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Shirley C. Franklin	director	C/O MUELLER WATER PRODUCTS, INC., 1200 ABERNATHY RD., SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Steven S Heinrichs	officer: EVP, General Counsel and Sec	1200 ABERNATHY ROAD, NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Todd P Helms	officer: SVP and CHRO	1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Marietta Edmunds Zakas	officer: SVP-Strategy and IR	1200 ABERNATHY RD, SUITE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328
Suzanne G Smith	officer: VP and CAO	1275 PEACHTREE STREET, 6TH FLOOR, ATLANTA GA 30309
Jeffery S. Sharritts	director	1200 ABERNATHY RD., NE, STE 1200, ATLANTA GA 30328