What is Allakos Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Allakos Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Allakos (Allakos) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
825 Industrial Road, Suite 500, San Carlos, CA, USA, 94070
Allakos Inc is a clinical-stage company developing therapeutic antibodies that selectively target immunomodulatory receptors present on the surface of immune effector cells involved in allergic, inflammatory, and proliferative diseases. The company's lead program, AK002, an antibody that targets Siglec-8, an inhibitory receptor found on eosinophils and mast cells. In preclinical and clinical studies, AK002 has been shown to deplete eosinophils and inhibit mast cells.
Executives
| Graham Neil Murray Hamilton |
director |
33 MT. GREEN RD, CROTON ON HUDSON, NEW YORK NY 10520 |
| Everett Rand Sutherland |
director |
29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Dolca Thomas |
director |
C/O PRINCIPIA BIOPHARMA INC., 220 E. GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| Paul Edward Walker |
director |
1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093 |
| Daniel Janney |
director |
PO BOX 7414, JACKSON WY 83002 |
| Amy L Ladd |
director |
INTUITIVE SURGICAL, INC, 1020 KIFER RD, SUNNYVALE CA 94086 |
| Craig A. Paterson |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
ALLAKOS INC., 825 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 500, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
| Margaret Nell Fitzgerald |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
ALLAKOS INC., 825 INDUSTRIAL ROAD, SUITE 500, SAN CARLOS CA 94070 |
| Steven P James |
director |
C/O OCERA THERAPUETICS, 525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 610, PALO ALTO CA 94301 |
| Adam Tomasi |
officer: COO, CFO and Secretary |
ZS PHARMA, INC., 508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Robert Alexander |
director, officer: President and CEO |
508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| Harlan Baird Radford |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O EBAY INC., 2145 HAMILTON AVENUE, SAN JOSE CA 95125 |
| Rasmussen Henrik S Md |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
508 WRANGLER DRIVE, SUITE 100, COPPELL TX 75019 |
| John P Mckearn |
director, 10 percent owner |
5820 NANCY DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Peter A Hudson |
10 percent owner |
701 COOL SPRINGS BOULEVARD, FRANKLIN TN 37067 |
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