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Activision Blizzard Predictability Rank


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3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Activision Blizzard Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Activision Blizzard Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Activision Blizzard's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Activision Blizzard Business Description

Activision Blizzard logo
Address
2701 Olympic Boulevard, Building B, Santa Monica, CA, USA, 90404
Activision Blizzard was formed in 2008 by the merger of Activision, one of the largest console video game publishers, and Blizzard, one of largest PC video game publishers. The combined firm remains one of the world's largest video game publishers. Activision's impressive franchise portfolio includes World of Warcraft, which boasts more than $8 billion of lifetime sales, and Call of Duty, which has sold over 175 million copies across 14 titles over 12 years.
Executives
Meservey Lulu Cheng director 2701 OLYMPIC BOULEVARD BUILDING B SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Bulatao Brian officer: Chief Administrative Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Dixton Grant Michael officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Zerza Armin officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Macartney Claudine officer: Chief People Officer AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP, INC. 175 WATER ST. NEW YORK NY 10038
Ostroff Dawn director 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 91405
Yang Jesse officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Alegre Daniel officer: President and COO 9800 59TH AVENUE NORTH MINNEAPOLIS MN 55317
Wereb Stephen G officer: Principal Accounting Officer C/O ACTIVISION, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Walther Christopher B officer: Chief Legal Officer C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Bowers Reveta F director C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Johnson Collister officer: President and COO C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC. 3100 OCEAN PARK BOULEVARD SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Neumann Spencer Adam officer: Chief Financial Officer SIERRA INCOME CORPORATION 375 PARK AVE., SUITE 3304 NEW YORK NY 10152
Asac Ii Lp 10 percent owner C/O CHADWICK & COMPANY 225 HIGHWAY 35, SUITE 102C RED BANK NJ 07701
Asac Ii Llc 10 percent owner C/O CHADWICK & COMPANY 225 HIGHWAY 35, SUITE 102C RED BANK NJ 07701

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