Horizon Therapeutics (Horizon Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Horizon Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Horizon Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Horizon Therapeutics (Horizon Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Horizon Therapeutics PLC (NAS:HZNP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

70 St. Stephen’s Green, Dublin, IRL, D02 E2X4

Website

https://www.horizontherapeutics.com

Horizon Therapeutics PLC is a biotechnology company. The company is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of medicines that address critical needs for people impacted by rare, autoimmune, and severe inflammatory diseases. Some of its pipeline products include UPLIZNA; HZN-825; Dazodalibep; Daxdilimab; TEPEZZA and others.

Executives

Andy Pasternak	officer: EVP and Chief Business Officer	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PLC, CONNAUGHT HOUSE, 1ST FL, 1 BURLINGTON RD, DUBLIN L2 D04 C5Y6
Aaron Cox	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PLC, 70 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 D02 E2X4
Jeffrey W Sherman	officer: EVP & Chief Medical Officer	C/O IDM PHARMA, INC., 9 PARKER, SUITE 100, IRVINE CA 92618
Patrick Mcilvenny	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PLC, 70 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 D02 E2X4
Sean M. Clayton	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PLC, 70 SAINT STEPHENS GREEN, DUBLIN L2 D02 E2X4
Thompson Elizabeth H.z.	officer: EVP, Research & Development	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS, INC., 2 TOWER PLACE, 12TH FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Timothy P Walbert	director, officer: President, Chairman and CEO	1033 SKOKIE BOULEVARD, SUITE 355, NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Jacopo Leonardi	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS PLC, 70 ST. STEPHEN'S GREEN, DUBLIN L2 D02 E2X4
Paul W. Hoelscher	officer: EVP Finance	1 HORIZON WAY, C/O HORIZON THERAPEUTICS, INC., DEERFIELD IL 60015
Michael A. Desjardin	officer: EVP, Technical Operations	C/O JAZZ PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 3180 PORTER DRIVE, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Miles W Mchugh	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O ACCRETIVE HEALTH, INC., 401 N. MICHIGAN AVE, SUITE 2700, CHICAGO IL 60611
Barry Moze	officer: EVP, Corporate Dev't.	C/O HORIZON PHARMA, INC., 520 EAST COOK ROAD, SUITE 520, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Brian K Beeler	officer: EVP, General Counsel	C/O HORIZON PHARMA PLC, 520 LAKE COOK ROAD, SUITE 520, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Michael G Grey	director	C/O SGX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 10505 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
William F Daniel	director	TREASURY BUILDING, LOWER GRAND CANAL STREET, DUBLIN 2 L2 00000