Intra-Cellular Therapies (Intra-Cellular Therapies) Predictability Rank

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What is Intra-Cellular Therapies Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Intra-Cellular Therapies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Intra-Cellular Therapies Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Intra-Cellular Therapies (Intra-Cellular Therapies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc (NAS:ITCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ITCI:Mexico 23I:Germany 23I:Germany

Address

430 East 29th Street, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.intracellulartherapies.com

Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc is a biopharmaceutical company that develops novel drugs for treating diseases of the central nervous system. The company is focused on the delivery and clinical development of small-molecule drugs that address needs in neuropsychiatric and neurological disorders. Intra-Cellular maintains proprietary chemistry platforms to develop drugs for neurodegenerative diseases. The company's business segment is discovering and developing drugs for the treatment of neurological and psychiatric disorders.

Executives

Sharon Mates	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	C/O INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 3960 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10032
Michael Halstead	officer: SVP and General Counsel	C/O WARNER CHILCOTT CORPORATION, 100 ENTERPRISE DRIVE, ROCKAWAY NJ 07866
Suresh K. Durgam	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O INTER-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 430 EAST 29TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Mark Neumann	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	C/O INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 430 EAST 29TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Lawrence J. Hineline	officer: VP of Finance, CFO & Secretary	C/O INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 3960 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10032
Van Nostrand Robert L	director	C/O ACHILLION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 300 GEORGE STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06511
Joel S Marcus	director	C/O ALEXANDRIA REAL ESTATE EQUITIES, INC, 26 NORTH EUCLID AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91101
Eduardo Rene Salas	director	C/O INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 430 EAST 29TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Rory B Riggs	director	65 RAILROAD AVE, RIDGEFIELD NJ 07657
Christopher D Alafi	director, 10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 7338, BERKELEY CA 94707
Richard A Lerner	director	THE SCRIPPS RESEARCH INSTITUTE, 10550 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Andrew Satlin	officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer	C/O INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 430 EAST 29TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10016
Kimberly E. Vanover	officer: VP, Clinical Development	C/O INTRA-CELLULAR THERAPIES, INC., 3960 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10032
Robert E Davis	officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer	3911 SORRENTO VALLEY BOULEVARD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Moshe Alafi	10 percent owner	1311 ORLEANS DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089