What is NuVasive Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
NuVasive Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
NuVasive (NuVasive) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12101 Airport Way, Broomfield, CO, USA, 92121
NuVasive Inc is a medical technology company focused on developing, manufacturing, selling and providing procedural solutions for spine surgery, with a guiding purpose to transform surgery, advance care and change lives. The company has a portfolio of procedurally integrated spine surgery solutions, including surgical access instruments, spinal implants, fixation systems, biologics, and enabling technologies, as well as systems and services for intraoperative neuromonitoring. It also develop and sell magnetically adjustable implant systems for spine and specialized orthopedic procedures.
Executives
| Michael Farrington |
officer: SVP, People and Culture |
7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Marc W. Rosenbaum |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| James Christopher Barry |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
7475 LUSK BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Andrew C. Morton |
officer: SVP, CHRO |
10910 DOMAIN DRIVE, SUITE 300, AUSTIN TX 78758 |
| Amy Belt Raimundo |
director |
ONE KAISER PLAZA, 22ND FLOOR, OAKLAND CA 94612 |
| Lucas Vitale |
officer: Chief Human Resources Officer |
7475 LUSK BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Massimo Calafiore |
officer: EVP, Global Business Units |
7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Siddhartha Kadia |
director |
7475 LUSK BOULEVARD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Vickie L Capps |
director |
2985 SCOTT STREET, VISTA CA 92083 |
| Brent J. Boucher |
officer: EVP, Global Commercial |
14 PLAZA DRIVE, LATHAM NY 12110 |
| Matthew Link |
officer: Exec. VP U.S. Sales |
7475 LUSK BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Matthew K Harbaugh |
officer: EVP and CFO |
675 MCDONNELL BLVD., HAZELWOOD MO 63042 |
| Dale A. Wolf |
officer: SVP, Global Operations |
7475 LUSK BLVD., SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Gregory T Lucier |
director |
C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277 |
| Paul Mcclintock |
officer: President, U.S. Commercial |
7475 LUSK BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
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