What is Plains GP Holdings LP Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Plains GP Holdings LP Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Plains GP Holdings LP (Plains GP Holdings LP) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
333 Clay Street, Suite 1600, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Plains All American provides transportation, storage, processing, fractionation, and marketing services for crude oil, refined products, natural gas liquids, liquefied petroleum gas, and related products. Plains' assets span the United States and Alberta, Canada, but are heavily concentrated in the Permian Basin.
Executives
| Willie Cw Chiang |
director, officer: Chairman & CEO |
370 17TH STREET, SUITE 2775, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Jeremy L. Goebel |
officer: EVP & CCO |
333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Ellen Desanctis |
director |
12326 OLD OAKS, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Kevin S Mccarthy |
director |
C/O KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS, LP, 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SECOND FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Gary R Petersen |
director |
210 HEDWIG, HOUSTON TX 77019 |
| Victor Burk |
director |
C/O ENERVEST MANAGEMENT PARTNERS LTD, 1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 800, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Lawrence Michael Ziemba |
director |
600 NORTH DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079 |
| John T Raymond |
director |
THE ENERGY & MINERALS GROUP, 811 MAIN STREET, SUITE 4200, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Alexandra Pruner |
director |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Bobby S Shackouls |
director |
5051 WESTHEIMER, STE 1400, HOUSTON TX 77056-5604 |
| Chris Temple |
director |
3953 MAPLE AVENUE, SUITE 180, DALLAS TX 75219 |
| Emg Investment, Llc |
director, See Remarks |
1401 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1025, HOUSTON TX 77010 |
| Robert V Sinnott |
director |
1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, 3RD FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Greg L Armstrong |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO |
|
| Harry N Pefanis |
officer: President & COO |
333 CLAY STREET, STE 1600, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
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