PetIQ (PETQ) Predictability Rank

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What is PetIQ Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PetIQ Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PetIQ Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PetIQ (PETQ) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » PetIQ Inc (NAS:PETQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

39L:Germany

Address

230 East Riverside Drive, Eagle, ID, USA, 83616

Website

https://www.petiq.com

PetIQ Inc is a manufacturer and distributor of health and wellness products for dogs and cats. The company offers veterinarian-grade pet Rx medications, OTC flea and tick preventatives, vitamins treats, nutritional supplements, and hygiene products. The group operates in two segments namely the Products and Services segments. It also provides third-party products to retailers which for a long time were primarily available from veterinary clinics only. Its proprietary brands include PetIQ, PetArmor, VIP Petcare, VetIQ PetCare, VetIQ, Capstar, Advecta, SENTRY, Sergeants, TruProfen, Betsy Farms, PetAction, Minties, Vera and Delightibles. The company generates maximum revenue from Products segment.

Executives

William J. Carter	officer: EVP, GENERAL COUNSEL	C/O PETIQ, INC., 230 E. RIVERSIDE DR., EAGLE ID 83616
John Paul Pearson	officer: EVP, Services & Manufactured	C/O PETIQ, INC., 230 E. RIVERSIDE DR., EAGLE ID 83616
Robert Michael Herrman	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	923 SOUTH BRIDGEWAY PLACE, EAGLE ID 83616
Michael A Smith	officer: EVP - Products	923 S. BRIDGEWAY PLACE, C/O PETIQ, INC., EAGLE ID 83616
Kimberly Lefko	director	923 S. BRIDGEWAY PLACE, EAGLE ID 83616
Sheryl Oloughlin	director	923 S. BRIDGEWAY PLACE, EAGLE ID 83616
Scott Huff	director	923. S. BRIDGEWAY PLACE, EAGLE ID 83616
Allan Hall	director	C/O PETIQ, INC., 230 E. RIVERSIDE DR., EAGLE ID 83616
Zvi Glasman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 915 DISC DRIVE, SCOTTS VALLEY CA 95066
Kenneth C. Walker	director	C/O PETIQ, INC., 230 E. RIVERSIDE DR., EAGLE ID 83616
Susan Sholtis	director	C/O PETIQ, INC., 500 E. SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 120, EAGLE ID 83616
Mccord Christensen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	500 EAST SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 120, EAGLE ID 83616
John Newland	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TRUE SCIENCE LLC, 500 E. SHORE DRIVE SUITE 120, EAGLE ID 83616
Ronald Kennedy	director, 10 percent owner	500 EAST SHORE DR, SUITE 120, EAGLE ID 83616
Ecp Helios Partners Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	437 MADISON AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022