What is Sangamo Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sangamo Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sangamo Therapeutics (Sangamo Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7000 Marina Boulevard, Brisbane, CA, USA, 94005
Sangamo Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company that translates ground-breaking science into genomic therapies transforming patients' lives using platform technologies in genome editing, gene therapy, gene regulation and cell therapy. The company's product pipeline includes Hemophilia, Central Nervous System, HIV, Lysosomal Storage Disorders, and Hemoglobinopathies.
Executives
| Biogen Inc. |
10 percent owner |
225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Beers Courtney |
director |
C/O SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 7000 MARINA BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Margaret A Horn |
director |
925 PAGE MILL ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
| Nathalie Dubois-stringfellow |
officer: SVP-Chief Development Officer |
C/O SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC., 7000 MARINA BOULEVARD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| John Markels |
director |
C/O SANGAMO THERAPEUTICS, INC., POINT RICHMOND TECH CTR, 501 CANAL BLVD., RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| H Stewart Parker |
director |
|
| Biogen Ma Inc. |
10 percent owner |
225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Scott B. Willoughby |
officer: SVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary |
7000 MARINA BLVD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Gary Loeb |
officer: EVP & General Counsel |
5885 HOLLIS ST., SUITE 100, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Jason D. Fontenot |
officer: SVP, Chief Scientific Officer |
7000 MARINA BLVD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Robert J. Schott |
officer: SVP, Head of Development |
7000 MARINA BLVD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Rolf Andrew Ramelmeier |
officer: EVP, Technical Operations |
7000 MARINA BLVD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Saira Ramasastry |
director |
501 CANAL BLVD., RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Kenneth J. Hillan |
director |
C/O ACHAOGEN, INC., 7000 SHORELINE COURT, SUITE 371, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| David Mark Mcclung |
officer: EVP Chief Business Officer |
7000 MARINA BLVD, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
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