Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund (Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund (Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund (AMEX:NBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

c/o Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC, 1290 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10104-0002

Website

https://www.nb.com

Neuberger Berman Intermediate Muni Fund is a closed-end management investment company that invests mainly in municipal securities. It aims to provide common stockholders a high level of current income exempt from Federal income tax.

Executives

Franklyn E. Smith	director	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104-0002
Ami Kaplan	director	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 1290 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10104-0002
Bradley Tank	other: CEO of Affil. of Inv. Mgr.	C/O LEHMAN BROTHERS ASSET MANAGEMENT, 190 SOUTH LASALLE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60603-3421
Faith Colish	other: Retired Director	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT INC, 605 THIRD AVE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
James G. Stavridis	director	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Deborah C. Mclean	director	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
Marc Gary	director	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-3698
Michael J. Cosgrove	director	C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580
Brian Patrick Kerrane	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158
Blue Ridge Investments, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	ONE BRYANT PARK, NEW YORK NY 10036
Bank Of America Na	10 percent owner	100 N. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Banc Of America Preferred Funding Corp	10 percent owner	214 NORTH TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Bank Of America Corp /de/	10 percent owner	BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Stephen Blake Miller	other: Portfolio Manager	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158-0180
William Braverman	other: Executive Officer of Affiliate	C/O NEUBERGER BERMAN MANAGEMENT LLC, 605 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10158