Noble Energy (Noble Energy) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1980. Start your Free Trial

What is Noble Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Noble Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Noble Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Noble Energy's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Noble Energy (Noble Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Noble Energy Inc (NAS:NBL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1001 Noble Energy Way, Houston, TX, USA, 77070

Website

https://www.nblenergy.com

Noble Energy is an independent oil and gas producer with key assets in the U.S., Israel, and West Africa. At the end of 2019, the company reported net proven reserves of 2.05 billion barrels of oil equivalent. Net production averaged 361 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2019, at a ratio of 57% oil and natural gas liquids and 43% natural gas.

Executives

Christine M Michel	officer: SVP, HR & Administration	1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY HOUSTON TX 77070
Rachel G Clingman	officer: SVP, General Counsel/Corp Sec	1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY HOUSTON TX 77070
Thomas Hodge Walker	officer: Sr. VP U.S. Onshore	1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070
J. Keith Elliott	officer: Sr. VP Offshore	NOBLE ENERGY INC. 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY HOUSTON TX 77070
Dustin A. Hatley	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	NOBLE ENERGY, INC., 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070
Scott D Urban	director	NOBLE ENERGY, INC. 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY HOUSTON TX 77070
James E Craddock	director	410 - 17TH STREET, SUITE 1400, DENVER CO 80202
Van Kleef William T	director
David L Stover	director, officer: CEO & Director	NOBLE ENERGY, INC., 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070
Jeffrey L Berenson	director	C/O EPOCH HOLDING CORPORATION, 640 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY 10019
Barbara J Duganier	director	6 CARLTON PARK COURT, HOUSTON TX 77024-7316
Robin H Fielder	officer: SVP, Midstream	1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Brent J Smolik	officer: President & COO	1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070
John T. Lewis	officer: Sr. VP Corporate Development	NOBLE ENERGY INC. 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY HOUSTON TX 77070
Kenneth M. Fisher	officer: Exec. VP & CFO	C/O CHAMPIONX CORPORATION, 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD, BLD 4 FL12, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381