Nabors Industries (Nabors Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Nabors Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nabors Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nabors Industries (Nabors Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Nabors Industries Ltd (NYSE:NBR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NBI1:Germany

Address

4 Par-la-Ville Road, Crown House, Second Floor, Hamilton, BMU, HM 08

Website

https://www.nabors.com

Nabors Industries Ltd owns and operates one of the world's largest land-based drilling rig fleets and is a provider of offshore platform rigs in the United States and international markets. It also provides performance tools, directional drilling services, tubular running services, and innovative technologies. It has operations in over 15 countries, 300 actively marketed rigs for land-based drilling operations and 29 actively marketed rigs for offshore platform drilling operations in the United States and multiple international markets. The company has five reportable segments: U.S. Drilling, Canada Drilling, International Drilling, Drilling Solutions, and Rig Technologies. The key revenue of the company is generated from International Drilling.

Executives

John P Kotts	director	C/O NABORS CORPORATE SERVICES, INC., 515 W. GREENS RD., SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
Anthony G Petrello	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND COO	NABORS CORP SERVICES, 515 W GREENS RD SUITE 1200`, HOUSTON TX 77067
William J Restrepo	officer: Chief Financial Officer	P.O. BOX 60068, HOUSTON TX 77205-0068
Tanya S Beder	director	500 TOTTEN POND ROAD, 6TH FLOOR, WALTHAM MA 02451
Anthony R Chase	director	10307 PACIFIC CENTER COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
John Yearwood	director	HADRIAN HOUSE, WINCOMBLEE ROAD, NEWCASTLE UPON TYNE X0 NE6 3PL
Howard Wolf	director
Dag Skattum	director	C/O NABORS CORPORATE SERVICES, INC., 515 W. GREENS RD., SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
James R Crane	director	JAMES R CRANE, 3214 LODESTAR, HOUSTON TX 77032
Myron M Sheinfeld	director	NABORS CORP SERVICES, 515 W GREENS RD SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
Michael C Linn	director	650 WASHINGTON ROAD, 8TH FLOOR, PITTSBURGH PA 15228
Mark D Andrews	officer: SECRETARY	C/O NABORS CORPORATE SERVICES INC, 515 W. GREENS RD., SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
Hans Schmidt	director	NABORS CORP SERVICES, 515 W GREENS RD SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
John V Lombardi	director	C/O NABORS CORPORATE SERVICES, INC., 515 W. GREENS RD., SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067
Robert Clark Wood	other: Principal Fin & Acctg Officer	C/O NABORS CORPORATE SERVICES INC., 515 W. GREENS RD., SUITE 1200, HOUSTON TX 77067