Navigant Consulting (Navigant Consulting) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1996. Start your Free Trial

What is Navigant Consulting Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Navigant Consulting Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Navigant Consulting Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Navigant Consulting's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Navigant Consulting (Navigant Consulting) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Navigant Consulting Inc (NYSE:NCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 North Riverside Plaza, Suite 2100, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.navigant.com

Navigant Consulting Inc is an America-based professional services firm. The company operates through four segments. The disputes, investigations & economics segment provides valuation and economic analysis services and forensic services. The financial, risk & compliance segment provides advisory services concerning strategy, operation, valuation, risk management and more. Clients of this segment are primarily from the financial services industry. The healthcare segment provides consulting services and business process management services primarily to healthcare providers, payers and life science companies. The energy segment provides management advisory services. The United States accounts for the majority of the company's revenue.

Executives

Kevin M Blakely	director	HUNTINGTON CENTER, 41 S. HIGH STREET, COLUMBUS OH 43287
Cynthia A Glassman	director	2500 LAKE COOK ROAD, RIVERWOODS IL 60015
Stephan A James	director	C/O ACCENTURE LEGAL & COMMERICAL GROUP, 23RD FL 161 N CLARK STREET, CHICAGO IL 60601
Julie Howard	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Rudina Seseri	director	C/O NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC., 150 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 2100, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jeffrey W. Yingling	director	C/O 150 N. RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 2100, CHICAGO IL 60606
Samuel K Skinner	director	233 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 60601
James R Thompson	director	C/O WINSTON & STRAWN, 35 WEST WACKER DRIVE, SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Lloyd H Dean	director	185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Lucinda M Baier	officer: EVP & CFO	111 WESTWOOD PLACE, SUITE 400, BRENTWOOD TN 37027
Peter Pond	director
William M Goodyear	director	NAVIGANT CONSULTING, INC, 615 N. WABASH AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60611
Valerie B Jarrett	director, Director	USG CORPORATION, 125 SOUTH FRANKLIN STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Scott J Krenz	other: Former EVP and CFO	5400 LEGACY DRIVE H3-3E-35, PLANO TX 75024
Ben W Perks	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer

Navigant Consulting (Navigant Consulting) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Neo-Concept International Group Holdings Limited Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering and Listing on Nasdaq

By Marketwired • 04-23-2024