NGM Biopharmaceuticals (NGM Biopharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is NGM Biopharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NGM Biopharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NGM Biopharmaceuticals (NGM Biopharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » NGM Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:NGM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0IK:Germany

Address

333 Oyster Point Boulevard, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.ngmbio.com

NGM Biopharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is engaged in developing novel therapeutics based on scientific understanding of key biological pathways for the treatment of cardio-metabolic, liver, oncologic and ophthalmic diseases. The company's products include NGM282 (aldafermin), NGM313 (MK-3655), NGM120, NGM120, NGM621, and NGM395, all these are focused on NASH, diabetes, oncology, AMD and metabolic disease.

Executives

Column Group L P	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
David V Goeddel	director, 10 percent owner	C/O COLUMN GROUP LP, 1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Jean-frederic Viret	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ANESIVA, INC., 650 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Irene Perlich	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	C/O NGM BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 333 OYSTER POINT BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jin-long Chen	director, officer: Chief Scientific Officer	630 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Column Group Opportunity Iii Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE DM-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Tcg Opportunity Iii Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE DM-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Column Group Opportunity Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	1 LETTERMAN DRIVE, BUILDING D, SUITE DM-900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94129
Column Group Iv-a, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Column Group Iv Gp, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Column Group Iv, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Tcg Iv Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Column Group Iii-a, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
Column Group Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	1700 OWENS STREET, SUITE 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94158
David J Woodhouse	director, officer: CEO and acting CFO	630 GATEWAY BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080