NetApp (NetApp) Predictability Rank

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What is NetApp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NetApp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NetApp (NetApp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » NetApp Inc (NAS:NTAP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NTA:Germany

Address

3060 Olsen Drive, San Jose, CA, USA, 95128

Website

https://www.netapp.com

NetApp Inc is a leading provider of enterprise data management and storage solutions. The company's segments include Hybrid Cloud and Public Cloud. It generates maximum revenue from the Hybrid Cloud segment. The Hybrid Cloud segment offers a portfolio of storage management and infrastructure solutions that help customers recast their traditional data centers with the power of cloud. This portfolio is designed to operate with public clouds to unlock the potential of hybrid, multi-cloud operations. Hybrid Cloud is composed of software, hardware, and related support, as well as professional and other services.

Executives

Michael J Berry	officer: EVP Finance & Operations, CFO	C/O INFORMATICA CORPORATION, 2100 SEAPORT BOULEVARD, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Elizabeth M O'callahan	officer: EVP, GC and Secretary	NETAPP, INC, 3060 OLSEN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95128
Cesar Cernuda	officer: President	1395 CROSSMAN AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
George Kurian	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O NETAPP, 495 E. JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Thomas Michael Nevens	director	C/O BORLAND SOFTWARE CORPORATION, 20450 STEVENS CREEK BLVD, SUITE 800, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Gerald Held	director
Robert Parks	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O SYNEOS HEALTH, INC., 1030 SYNC STREET, MORRISVILLE NC 27560
Carrie Palin	director	1801 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80202
Deepak Ahuja	director	C/O TESLA MOTORS, INC., 3500 DEER CREEK ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Kathryn Hill	director	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Scott F. Schenkel	director	C/O EBAY INC., 2025 HAMILTON AVE., SAN JOSE CA 95125
George T Shaheen	director
Deborah Kerr	director	901 MARQUETTE AVENUE, SUITE 3200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Harvinder S Bhela	officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer	NETAPP, INC, 3060 OLSEN DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95128
Matthew K Fawcett	officer: Senior VP, General Counsel	495 EAST JAVA DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089