Nuance Communications (Nuance Communications) Predictability Rank

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What is Nuance Communications Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Nuance Communications Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Nuance Communications (Nuance Communications) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Nuance Communications Inc (NAS:NUAN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1 Wayside Road, Burlington, MA, USA, 01803

Website

http://www.nuance.com

Nuance Communications Inc is the pioneer in conversational AI innovations that bring intelligence to everyday work and life. The company delivers solutions that understand, analyze, and respond to people amplifying human intelligence to increase productivity and security. Its operating segment includes Healthcare; Enterprise; and Other. The company generates maximum revenue from the Healthcare segment. Its Healthcare segment is primarily engaged in providing clinical speech and clinical language understanding solutions that improve the clinical documentation process, from capturing the complete patient record to improving clinical documentation and quality measures for reimbursement. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Lloyd Carney	director	C/O MICROMUSE INC, 139 TOWNSEND ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Robert Dahdah	officer: Executive Vice President and C	C/O NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS, INC. ONE WAYSIDE ROAD BURLINGTON MA 01803
Mark D Benjamin	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 1 WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Robert Weideman	officer: EVP & GM, Enterprise Division	C/O SCANSOFT INC 9 CENTENNIAL DR PEABODY MA 01960
Daniel David Tempesta	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	ONE WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Sanjay Vaswani	director
Joseph Carl Petro	officer: Executive Vice President & Chi	THREE RAVINIA DRIVE ATLANTA 2Q 30346
Arthur G. Giterman	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	26 ELDRED STREET LEXINGTON MA 02420
Wendy Cassity	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Thomas L Beaudoin	officer: EVP, Business Transformation	NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 1 WAYSIDE ROAD, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Mark R Laret	director	VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC 3100 HANSEN WAY MAIL STOP E327 PALO ALTO CA 94304
Daniel J. Brennan	director	BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION, 300 BOSTON SCIENTIFIC WAY, MARLBOROUGH MA 01752-1234
Robert J Finocchio	director	C/O ALTERA CORP 101 INNOVATION DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95134
Thomas D Ebling	director	C/O DEMANDWARE, INC. 5 WALL STREET BURLINGTON MA 01803
Laura S. Kaiser	director	10101 WOODFIELD LANE, ST. LOUIS MO 63132