Northwest Natural Holding Co (Northwest Natural Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Northwest Natural Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Northwest Natural Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Northwest Natural Holding Co (Northwest Natural Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Northwest Natural Holding Co (NYSE:NWN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NN3:Germany

Address

250 S.W. Taylor Street, Portland, OR, USA, 97204

Website

https://www.nwnaturalholdings.com

Northwest Natural Holding Co is a public natural gas service supplier operating in the U.S. Pacific Northwest. Its subsidiary, NW Natural, operates through the natural gas distribution segment, which purchases and distributes natural gas through approximately 7,95,000 meters in Oregon and southwest Washington. The company generates its revenue from residential, commercial, and industrial customers, the majority of which are in Oregon. Residential and commercial customers account for the vast majority of profitability.

Executives

Jane L Peverett	director	1489 MARINE DRIVE, SUITE 802, WEST VANCOUVER A1 V7T 1B8
David A. Weber	officer: Pres. & CEO of Issuer's Sub.	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Joseph S Karney	officer: VP, Eng & Utility Operations, other: NW Natural	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
David Hugo Anderson	director, officer: President & CEO
Jon G Huddleston	officer: VP, Eng. & Utility Operations	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Zachary D Kravitz	officer: VP, Rates & Regulatory, other: NW Natural	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Sandra Mcdonough	director	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
James R Downing	officer: VP and CIO	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Malia H Wasson	director	220 NW SECOND AVE, PORTLAND OR 97209
Kimberly A. Heiting	officer: SVP Comm. & Chf. Mktg. Officer	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Shawn M Filippi	officer: VP, CCO & Corp. Secretary	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
C Scott Gibson	director	PMB 316, PO BOX 30,000, JACKSON WY 83002
Karen Lee	director	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204
Nathan I Partain	director	DNP SELECT INCOME FUND INC, 55 E. MONROE, STE. 3600, CHICAGO IL 60603
Justin Palfreyman	officer: VP Strategy & Bus Dev	250 SW TAYLOR ST, PORTLAND OR 97204