Duke Realty (Duke Realty) Predictability Rank

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What is Duke Realty Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Duke Realty Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Duke Realty (Duke Realty) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Duke Realty Corp (NYSE:DRE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8711 River Crossing Boulevard, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46240

Website

https://www.dukerealty.com

Duke Realty is an Indianapolis-based publicly traded REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of primarily industrial properties and provides real estate services to third-party owners. It has interest in over 150 million square feet across the largest logistics markets in the U.S.

Executives

Steven W Schnur	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	600 E. 96TH ST, STE 100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Mark A Denien	officer: EVP & CFO	600 E 96TH ST, #100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Scott P Anderson	director	1031 MENDOTA HEIGHTS ROAD, ST. PAUL MN 55120
Chris T. Sultemeier	director	1650 JOHN KING BLVD, #3602, ROCKWALL TX 75032
John Case	director	600 LA TERRAZA BOULEVARD, ESCONDIDO CA 92025
Michael E Szymanczyk	director	DOMINION RESOURCES, INC., 100 TREDEGAR STREET, RICHMOND VA 23219
Warren M Thompson	director	4951 LAKE BROOK DRIVE, SUITE 500, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Melanie R Sabelhaus	director	227 GREENSPRING VALLEY DRIVE, OWINGS MILLS MD 21117
Lynn C Thurber	director	JONES LANG LASALLE INCORPORTED, 200 E RANDOLPH DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Scott Peter M Iii	director	P O BOX 1551, RALEIGH NC 27601
Tamara D Fischer	director	5200 DTC PARKWAY, SUITE 200, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
James B. Connor	director, officer: President and CEO	600 E 96TH ST, #100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Ann C. Dee	officer: EVP,General Counsel & Corp Sec	600 E 96TH ST, #100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Nicholas C. Anthony	officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer	600 E 96TH STREET, SUITE 100, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46240
Kelly T Killingsworth	director	2430 SW 75TH TERRACE, PORTLAND OR 97225