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Hanesbrands Predictability Rank


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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Apparel Manufacturing subindustry, Hanesbrands's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Hanesbrands Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Hanesbrands's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Hanesbrands's Predictability Rank falls into.



Hanesbrands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Hanesbrands Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Hanesbrands's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Hanesbrands Business Description

Hanesbrands logo
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1000 East Hanes Mill Road, Winston-Salem, NC, USA, 27105
Hanesbrands manufactures basic and athletic apparel under brands including Hanes, Champion, Playtex, Bali, and Bonds. The company sells wholesale to discount, midmarket, and department store retailers as well as direct to consumers. Hanesbrands is vertically integrated as it produces more than 70% of its products in company-controlled factories in more than three dozen nations. Hanesbrands distributes products in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.
Executives
Upchurch W Howard Jr officer: Group President, IW Americas 1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON SALEM NC 27106
Griffin Bobby J director C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC. 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL STE 700 STAMFORD CT 06902
Oliver Kristin L officer: Chief Human Resources Officer 11215 METRO PARKWAY FORT MYERS FL 33966
Ziegler Ann Elizabeth director ONE EAST WACKER DR CHICAGO IL 60601
Bratspies Stephen B director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1000 E. HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Ram Jonathan officer: Group Pres., Global Activewear 1000 E. HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Bortolussi David L officer: Group Pres, Innerwear Intl 1000 E. HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Lewis Markland Scott officer: CAO and Interim CFO 1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD LEGAL DEPARTMENT WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Faircloth Michael E. officer: Group Pres, Global Ops 1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Breig Geralyn director ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD SUITE 500 CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Evans Gerald director, officer: Chief Executive Officer 1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Singer David V director 13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PL SUITE 900 CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Moran Robert F director C/O GNC HOLDINGS, INC. 300 SIXTH AVENUE PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Johnson Joia M officer: Chief Admin Ofcr, GC&Corp Sec C/O HANESBRANDS INC. 1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD WINSTON SALEM NC 27105
Moison Franck J director C/O COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO 300 PARK AVE 15TH FL NEW YORK NY 10022

Hanesbrands Headlines

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