ON24 (ONTF) Predictability Rank

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What is ON24 Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ON24 Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ON24 (ONTF) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » ON24 Inc (NYSE:ONTF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

50 Beale Street, 8th Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.on24.com

ON24 Inc provides a cloud-based digital experience platform that enables businesses to convert customer engagement into revenue through interactive webinar experiences, virtual event experiences, and multimedia content experiences. The company derives revenue from subscription agreements with customers for accessing the platform and related services. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Sharat Sharan	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and Chief Executive	3221 LA MESA DRIVE, SAN CARLOS CA 94070
Jayesh Sahasi	officer: EV President, Product and CTO	934 LUNDY LN, LOS ALTOS CA 94024
Dominique Trempont	director	5 RANDALL PLACE, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Steven Vattuone	officer: Chief Financial Officer	139 TOWNSEND ST, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
James Blackie	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	930 N WETHERLY DR #304, WEST HOLLYWOOD CA 90069
Teresa Anania	director	C/O ON24, INC., 50 BEALE STREET, 8TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94015
Ronald Paul Mitchell	director	110 W. KINZIE STREET, 5TH FL, CHICAGO IL 60654
Lynrock Lake Partners Llc	10 percent owner	2 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 130, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Lynrock Lake Lp	10 percent owner	2 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 130, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Cynthia Paul	10 percent owner	C/O DSP GROUP, INC., 5 SHENKAR STREET, HERZELIA L3 4672505
Anil Arora	director	C/O YODLEE, INC., 3600 BRIDGE PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Anthony Zingale	director	C/O SERVICEMAX, INC., 4450 ROSEWOOD DR., #200, PLEASANTON CA 94588
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Irwin Federman	director, 10 percent owner	2735 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Barry Zwarenstein	director	C/O IOMEGA CORP, 4435 EASTGATE MALL 3RD FLOOR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121