What is Ormat Technologies Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ormat Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ormat Technologies (Ormat Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6140 Plumas Street, Reno, NV, USA, 89519-6075
Ormat Technologies Inc is engaged in the geothermal energy power business. The company is engaged in three business segments: 1) Electricity Segment. where the company develops, builds, owns and operates geothermal, solar PV and recovered energy-based power plants in the United States and geothermal power plants in other countries and sell the electricity generated. 2) Product Segment includes designing, manufacturing and selling equipment for geothermal and recovered energy-based electricity generation and providing services relating to the engineering, procurement and construction of geothermal and recovered energy-based power plants. 3) Energy Storage Segment includes owning and operating grid-connected which provide capacity, energy and ancillary services directly to the electric grid.
Executives
| Dafna Sharir |
director |
C/O AMPAL AMERICAN ISRAEL CORP, 111 ARLOZOROV STREET, TEL AVIV ISREL L3 00000 |
| Isaac Angel |
officer: CEO Appointee |
2099 GATEWAY PLACE, SUITE 600 CA 95110 |
| Doron Blachar |
officer: CFO |
6225 NEIL ROAD, RENO NV 89511 |
| Stanley Stern |
director |
C/O THCG, INC, 650 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FL, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Orix Corp |
10 percent owner |
WORLD TRADE CENTER BLDG., SOUTH TOWER, 2-4-1 HAMAMATSU-CHO, MINATO-KU, TOKYO M0 105 5135 |
| Byron G. Wong |
director |
2 TRAILS END, WESTPORT CT 06880 |
| David Granot |
director |
6225 NEIL ROAD, RENO NV 89511 |
| Shimon Hatzir |
officer: VP, Elect. & Conceptual Engin. |
6225 NEIL ROAD, SUITE 300, C/O ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., RENO NV 89511 |
| Shlomi Argas |
officer: V.P., Projects |
6225 NEIL ROAD, RENO NV 89511 |
| Karin Corfee |
director |
6140 PLUMAS STREET, RENO NV 89519 |
| Michal Marom |
director |
6140 PLUMAS STREET, RENO NV 89519 |
| Dan Falk |
director |
6225 NEIL ROAD, SUITE 300, C/O ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., RENO NV 89511 |
| Jessica Woelfel |
officer: General Counsel and CCO |
6140 PLUMAS STREET, RENO NV 89519 |
| Mike Nikkel |
director |
6140 PLUMAS STREET, RENO NV 89519 |
| Zvi Krieger |
officer: VP, Geothermal Enginerring |
6225 NEIL ROAD, SUITE 300, C/O ORMAT TECHNOLOGIES, INC., RENO NV 89511 |
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