PVH (PVH) Predictability Rank

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What is PVH Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PVH Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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PVH (PVH) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PVH:Mexico PVH:Germany PVH:Germany

Address

285 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10017

Website

https://www.pvh.com

PVH designs and markets branded apparel in more than 40 countries. Its key fashion categories include men's dress shirts, ties, sportswear, underwear, and jeans. Its two designer brands, Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, now generate all its revenue after its recent disposition of its smaller brands. PVH operates e-commerce sites and about 1,500 stores, licenses its brands to third parties, and distributes its merchandise through department stores and other wholesale accounts. The firm traces its history to 1881 and is based in New York City.

Executives

Mark D Fischer	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	C/O PHILLIPS-VAN HEUSEN CORPORATION, 200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Julie Fuller	officer: Chief People Officer	200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Martijn Hagman	officer: CEO, PVH Europe	C/O PVH CORP., 200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Eva Serrano	officer: Global Brand President, CK	C/O PVH CORP, 285 MADISONAVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
James Holmes	officer: EVP & Controller	C/O PVH CORP., 200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Zachary Coughlin	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	285 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Stefan Larsson	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	TWO FOLSOM STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Ajay Bhalla	director	2000 PURCHASE STREET, PURCHASE NY 10577
Sourry Knox Judith Amanda	director	C/O 200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Brent Callinicos	director	C/O 706 MISSION STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Edward R. Rosenfeld	director	C/O STEVEN MADDEN, LTD., 52-16 BARNETT AVENUE, LONG ISLAND CITY NY 11104
Vincent James Marino	director	C/O OFFICEMAX INCORPORATED, 263 SHUMAN BLVD., NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Joseph B Fuller	director	TWO CANAL PARK, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
George Cheeks	director	200 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Allison Peterson	director	7601 PENN AVENUE SOUTH, RICHFIELD MN 55423