Tribune Media Co (Tribune Media Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Tribune Media Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tribune Media Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Tribune Media Co (Tribune Media Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Tribune Media Co (NYSE:TRCO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

515 North State Street, Chicago, IL, USA, 60654

Website

http://www.tribunemedia.com

Tribune is one of the country's largest media companies. It reaches more than 80% of U.S. households and is the only media organization with newspapers, TV stations, and Web sites in the nation's top three markets. Tribune's newspapers include the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune, and Newsday. Its broadcasting group operates more than 20 television stations, superstation WGN on national cable, an AM radio station, and the Chicago Cubs baseball team.

Executives

Peter M Kern	director, officer: CEO	C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVENUE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Ross Levinsohn	director	701 FIRST AVENUE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Peter E Murphy	director	ONE CAESARS PALACE DRIVE, LAS VEGAS NV 89109
Craig A Jacobson	director	C/O EXPEDIA, INC., 333 108TH AVENUE NE, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Edward P Lazarus	officer: EVP, General Counsel & CSO	C/O TRIBUNE COMPANY, 435 NORTH MICHIGAN AVENUE, CHICAGO IL 60611
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings Gp, Llc	other: Former director and 10% owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Capital Group Holdings, L.p.	other: Former director and 10% owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Tribune, L.p.	other: Former director and 10% owner	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Aif Investments, L.p.	other: Former director and 10% owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Oaktree Aif Investment Gp, Llc	other: Former director and 10% owner	333 SOUTH GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071
Peter Liguori	director, officer: President and CEO	1 DISCOVERY PLACE, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Melanie Hughes	officer: EVP, Human Resources	7 WORLD TRADE CENTER, 250 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10007
Steven Berns	officer: EVP & CFO	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Kenneth Liang	director	C/O 77 BEALE ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Bruce A Karsh	director	C/O OAKTREE CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P., 333 S. GRAND AVENUE, 28TH FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90071