Twitter (Twitter) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2013. Start your Free Trial

What is Twitter Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Twitter Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Twitter Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Twitter's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Twitter (Twitter) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Interactive Media » Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1355 Market Street, Suite 900, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94103

Website

https://www.twitter.com

Twitter is an open distribution platform for and a conversational platform around short-form text (a maximum of 280 characters), image, and video content. Its users can create different social networks based on their interests, thereby creating an interest graph. Many prominent celebrities and public figures have Twitter accounts. Twitter generates revenue from advertising (90%) and licensing the user data that it compiles (10%).

Executives

Parag Agrawal	director, officer: Former Chief Executive Officer	C/O TWITTER, INC., 1355 MARKET STREET, SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Vijaya Gadde	officer: Former Chief Legal Officer	C/O TWITTER INC, 1355 MARKET STREET SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Ned D. Segal	officer: Former Chief Financial Officer	1 MARKET PLAZA, STEUART TOWER, SUITE 800, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Jack Dorsey	other: Possible member of 10% group	C/O TWITTER INC, 1355 MARKET STREET SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Nick V. Caldwell	officer: General Manager of Core Tech	C/O HUBSPOT, INC., 25 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Kayvon Beykpour	officer: General Manager of Consumer	C/O TWITTER, INC., 1355 MARKET STREET, SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Saud H R H Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Al	other: Possible member of 10% group	C/O KINGDOM HOLDING COMPANY, KINGDOM CTR FLOOR 66 P O BOX 2, RIYADH T0 11321
Robert Kaiden	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O INSPIRATO INCORPORATED, 1544 WAZEE STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Bruce Falck	officer: General Manager of Revenue	C/O TWITTER, INC., 1355 MARKET STREET, SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Michael Montano	officer: Engineering Lead	C/O TWITTER, INC., 1355 MARKET STREET, SUITE 900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Slp V Aggregator Gp, L.l.c.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp V Titus Holdings Ii, L.p.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp V Titus Gp Ii, L.l.c.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2776 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slta V (gp), L.l.c.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Silver Lake Technology Investors V, L.p.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025