Tyler Technologies (Tyler Technologies) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1969. Start your Free Trial

What is Tyler Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tyler Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tyler Technologies Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Tyler Technologies's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Tyler Technologies (Tyler Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Tyler Technologies Inc (NYSE:TYL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TYL:Mexico TYP:Germany

Address

5101 Tennyson Parkway, Plano, TX, USA, 75024

Website

https://www.tylertech.com

Tyler Technologies provides a full suite of software solutions and services that address the needs of cities, counties, schools, courts and other local government entities. The company's three core products are Munis, which is the core ERP system, Odyssey, which is the court management system, or CMS, and payments. The company also provides a variety of add-on modules and offers outsourced property tax assessment services.

Executives

Brian K Miller	officer: Vice President Finance	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Marr John S Jr	officer: Chief Operating Officer	370 US ROUTE 1, PALMOUTH ME 04105
Dustin R Womble	officer: Executive VP	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Daniel M Pope	director	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Moore H Lynn Jr	officer: VP and General Counsel	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Glenn A Carter	director	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Jeffrey David Puckett	officer: Chief Operating Officer	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Luther Jr King	director	5949 SHERRY LANE, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75225
Hawkins Ronnie D. Jr.	director	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Donald R Brattain	director
Brenda A Cline	director	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Mary L. Landrieu	director	100 CENTURYLINK DRIVE, MONROE LA 71203
Larry D Leinweber	director	NEW WORLD SYSTEMS, INC, 888 WEST BIG BEAVER, SUITE 600, TROY MI 48084
John M Yeaman	director, officer: Chairman	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024
Bruce Graham	officer: Executive Vice President	5101 TENNYSON PARKWAY, PLANO TX 75024