WEC Energy Group (WEC Energy Group) Predictability Rank

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What is WEC Energy Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WEC Energy Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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WEC Energy Group (WEC Energy Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » WEC Energy Group Inc (NYSE:WEC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

EIX DTE ETR FE XEL ES ED PPL AEE PEG NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC BOM:532898

Traded in Other Exchanges

WIC:Germany WIC:Germany W1EC34:Brazil

Address

231 West Michigan Street, P.O. Box 1331, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53201

Website

https://www.wecenergygroup.com

WEC Energy Group's electric and gas utility businesses serve electric and gas customers in Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin service territories. The company also owns a 60% stake in American Transmission Co. WEC's asset mix is approximately 49% electric generation and distribution, 36% gas distribution, 10% electric transmission, and 5% unregulated renewable energy.

Executives

Ulice Jr Payne	director	MANPOWERGROUP INC., 100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Ave M Bie	director	231 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Scott J Lauber	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	231 W. MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Joshua M Erickson	officer: VP and Deputy General Counsel	231 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Glen E Tellock	director	1725 SHEPHERD ROAD, CHATTANOOGA TN 37421
William Mastoris	officer: EVP-Cust. Svc. and Operations	231 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Robert M Garvin	officer: Senior Vice President	231 W. MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Molly A Mulroy	officer: EVP & Chief Admin Officer	231 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Anthony Reese	officer: Vice President and Treasurer	231 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Tom Metcalfe	officer: Exec. VP - Generation	231 W. MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Thomas K Lane	director	51 JOHN F. KENNEDY PARKWAY, SUITE 200, SHORT HILLS NJ 07078
Cristina A Garcia-thomas	director	231 WEST MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Charles R Matthews	officer: President & CEO - PGL/NSG	231 W. MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203
Xia Liu	officer: EVP and CFO	ONE ENERGY PLACE, PENSACOLA FL 32520
Gale E Klappa	director, officer: President	231 W. MICHIGAN STREET, MILWAUKEE WI 53203