Oblong (Oblong) Predictability Rank

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What is Oblong Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oblong Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Oblong (Oblong) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Oblong Inc (NAS:OBLG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

25587 Conifer Road, Suite 105-231, Conifer, CO, USA, 80433

Website

https://www.oblong.com

Oblong Inc delivers visual solutions for collaboration and computing environments. The company's flagship product Mezzanine is the technology platform that defines computing: simultaneous multi-user, multi-screen, multi-device, and multi-location for dynamic and immersive visual collaboration. Mezzanine transforms routine meetings and workflows into agile, engaging experiences by making data visible and accessible in a collaborative setting. Mezzanine enables multiple, concurrent pieces of content to be shared, manipulated, created, and captured across distance. It serves various industries including aerospace, consulting, executive search, broadcast media, technology, financial services, education, healthcare, real estate, retail, construction, hospitality, and government, among others.

Executives

Jason T Adelman	director	900 PARK AVENUE, APARTMENT 15A, NEW YORK NY 10021
Deborah Jean Meredith	director	460 VAN BUREN STREET, LOS ALTOS CA 94022
Robert Weinstein	director	3960 HOWARD HUGHES PARKWAY, SUITE 500, LAS VEGAS NV 89169
Jonathan Schechter	director	C/O ATRINSIC, INC. 1 GRAND CENTRAL PLACE, SUITE 2319, NEW YORK NY 10165
Stepstone Group Lp	10 percent owner	4225 EXECUTIVE SQUARE, SUITE 1600, LA JOLLA CA 92037
Matthew Yavner Blumberg	director	26 DORIS DRIVE, SCARSDALE NY 10583
Peter Joseph Hawkes	officer: SVP Design, Product, & Engnrg	650 SANTA ROSA AVENUE, BERKLEY CA 94707
Bradley A Feld	10 percent owner	C/O FOUNDRY GROUP, 645 WALNUT ST., BOULDER CO 80302
Ryan A Mcintyre	10 percent owner
Foundry Select Fund Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Foundry Group Select Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Foundry Venture Capital 2007, L.p.	10 percent owner	1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Foundry Venture 2007, Llc	10 percent owner	1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Seth Levine	10 percent owner	1050 WALNUT STREET, SUITE 210, BOULDER CO 80302
Greenspring Opportunities Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	100 PAINTERS MILL ROAD, OWINGS MILLS MD 2111