Olema Pharmaceuticals (Olema Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Olema Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Olema Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Olema Pharmaceuticals (Olema Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Olema Pharmaceuticals inc (NAS:OLMA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

512, 2nd Street, 4th Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94107

Website

https://www.olema.com

Olema Pharmaceuticals inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the discovery, development, and commercialization of next generation targeted therapies for women's cancers. Its therapies offer the potential to improve outcomes for women living with cancer. The company has completed discovery and preclinical studies of OP-1250.

Executives

Cyrus Harmon	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 512 2ND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Paradigm Biocapital Advisors Lp	10 percent owner	767 THIRD AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
G. Walmsley Graham	director	ONE SANSOME STREET, SUITE 1650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Kovacs Shane William Charles	officer: Ch. Operating & Financial Off.	PTC THERAPEUTICS, INC., 100 CORPORATE COURT, SOUTH PLAINFIELD NJ 07080
Naseem Zojwalla	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 512 2ND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Sean Bohen	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 512 2ND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
David C. Myles	officer: Chief Development Officer	C/O OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 512 2ND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
J. Scott Garland	director	210 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Senai Asefaw	10 percent owner	767 THIRD AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Paradigm Biocapital International Fund Ltd.	10 percent owner	C/O WALKERS CORPORATE LIMITED, 190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9008
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Paradigm Biocapital Advisors Gp Llc	10 percent owner	767 THIRD AVENUE, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK CITY NY 10017
Kinney Horn	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O OLEMA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 512 2ND STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Yi Larson	director	C/O RAYZEBIO, INC., 5505 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SUITE 300, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Cormorant Asset Management, Lp	10 percent owner	200 CLARENDON STREET, 52ND FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116