What is OMNIQ Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
OMNIQ Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
OMNIQ (OMQS) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1865 West 2100 South, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84119
OMNIQ Corp provides computerized and machine vision image processing solutions that use patented and proprietary artificial intelligence (AI) technology to deliver data collection, real time surveillance and monitoring for supply chain management, homeland security, public safety, traffic and parking management and access control applications. The company provides products and solutions to two markets: supply chain management and smart/safe city.
Executives
| Neev Nissenson |
director |
42 CARRY WAY, CARSON CITY NV 89521 |
| Mina Ayala Teicher |
director |
22 VITKIN ST, TEL AVIV L3 63474 |
| Guy Elhanani |
director |
11 YOSEF NAKAR STREET, PETAH TIQVA L3 4977359 |
| Itzhak Almog |
director |
7/A MOLEDET ST, HOD HASHARON L3 45341 |
| Shai Lustgarten |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
27, HAMETZUDA STREET, AZOR L3 5800171 |
| Jason F Griffith |
director, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2580 ANTHEM VILLAGE DRIVE, HENDERSON NV 89052 |
| Carlos Jaime Nissensohn |
10 percent owner |
TRAVESA DE PRAIA 128, PRAIA DA LUZ S1 8600 |
| Benjamin Kemper |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1251 S. 1650 W, SYRACUSE UT 84075 |
| Andrew J Macmillan |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
NTS, INC., 5307 W. LOOP 289, LUBBOCK TX 79414 |
| Yaron Shalem |
director |
5 YISHAYAHU,, AURECH STREET,, TEL AVIV, L3 00000 |
| Joseph Trombino |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
860 CONGER STREET, EUGENE OR 97402 |
| Gilles Gaudreault |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
2580 ANTHEM VILLAGE DR., HENDERSON NV 89052 |
| Viascan Group Inc. |
10 percent owner |
8102 TRANSCANADA HWY, ST-LAURENT A8 H751M5 |
| Lewis William Austin Iv |
director |
201 E 87TH STREET, APT 5H, NEW YORK NY 10128 |
| Robert F. Shepard |
director |
2580 ANTHEM VILLAGE DRIVE, HENDERSON NV 89052 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
OMQS has been successfully added to your