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Online Vacation Center Holdings (Online Vacation Center Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Online Vacation Center Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Online Vacation Center Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Online Vacation Center Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Online Vacation Center Holdings (Online Vacation Center Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Online Vacation Center Holdings Corp (OTCPK:ONVC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ISPO NTRP NNAX CDNO BKNG ABNB RCL TCOM CCL EXPE NCLH MMYT HKSE:00780 LSE:JET2 TRIP XTER:TUI1 TNL ASX:FLT XPAR:MMB ASX:WEB
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2307 West Broward Boulevard, Suite 400, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33312
Website
https://www.onlinevacationcenter.com
Online Vacation Center Holdings Corp is a Florida holding company. It is engaged in the provision of vacation travel and marketing services through its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company offers vacation services for affluent retiree markets; and river, ocean, and land vacation packages, as well as operates a franchise that focused on travel sales through mobile agents. The company also publishes three travel newsletters, such as Top Travel Deals, Spotlight, and TravelFlash; and operates a website that connects travellers with websites to purchase hotel, resort, and vacation packages.
Executives
Edward Rudner director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & CFO 1801 NW 66TH AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Reginald Flosse 10 percent owner LOTISSEMENT MIRI, APT.A2, TAHIRI PUNAAUIA I4 TAHITI
David Nankin director 1801 NW 66 AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Daniel Joseph Rudner director 1801 NW 66 AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Kurt Homfelt other: President, Dunhill Vacations 1801 NW 66 AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Richard Anthony Mckinnon director 4404 DRUID LANE, DALLAS TX 75205
Brian P Froelich director 1801 NW 66TH AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Simon Todd officer: Vice President 1801 NW 66 AVENUE, PLANTATION FL 33313
Frank D Bracken director 1801 N.W. 66 AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Mary Louise Ruderman officer: Vice President 1801 NW 66 AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
Brenda Josowitz officer: Vice President 1801 NW 66 AVENUE, SUITE 102, PLANTATION FL 33313
William A Cataldo 10 percent owner SUITE 912 EXECUTIVE CENTER,, 1088 BISHOP STREET, HONOLULU HI 96813
Alan Rubin director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and CFO (see remarks) 334 FAIRMONT ROAD, WESTON FL 33326

Online Vacation Center Holdings (Online Vacation Center Holdings) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Online Vacation Center Holdings Stock Appears To Be Fairly Valued

By GF Value GF Value • 04-03-2021