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Orchid Island Capital (Orchid Island Capital) Predictability Rank


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What is Orchid Island Capital Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Orchid Island Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Orchid Island Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Orchid Island Capital (Orchid Island Capital) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Orchid Island Capital Inc (NYSE:ORC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
IVR REFI NREF GPMT AOMR TRTX SEVN SACH ACRE AAIC NLY STWD AGNC RITM BXMT ABR RC CMTG ARI LADR
Traded in Other Exchanges
45U0:Germany
Address
3305 Flamingo Drive, Vero Beach, FL, USA, 32963
Website
https://www.orchidislandcapital.com
Orchid Island Capital Inc invests in residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) across the United States. The principal and interest payments of its RMBS are guaranteed by the Federal National Mortgage Association, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, or the Government National Mortgage Association, and are backed by single-family residential mortgage loans. The company's investment portfolio is divided into two categories namely traditional pass-through Agency RMBS; and structured Agency RMBS, such as collateralized mortgage obligations, interest-only securities, inverse interest-only securities, and principal-only securities, among other types of structured Agency RMBS.
Executives
Haas G Hunter Iv director, officer: CFO, CIO and Secretary C/O BIMINI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Robert E Cauley director, officer: President, CEO C/O BIMINI MORTGAGE MANAGEMENT, INC., 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, SUITE 100, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Bitting W Coleman director 6330 NORTHWOOD AVENUE, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
Paula Morabito director 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, VERO BEACH FL 32963
Ava L Parker director 1469 HARRINGTON PARK DRIVE, JACKSONVILLE FL 32225
John Van Heuvelen director 363 HIGH STREET, DENVER CO 80218
Frank P Filipps director 1601 MARKET ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Bimini Capital Management, Inc. 10 percent owner 3305 FLAMINGO DRIVE, VERO BEACH FL 32963