Blue Owl Capital (Blue Owl Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Blue Owl Capital Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blue Owl Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blue Owl Capital (Blue Owl Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Blue Owl Capital Inc (NYSE:OWL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

399 Park Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.blueowl.com

Blue Owl Capital Inc is an alternative asset management firm. It provides investors access to asset management capital solutions through its Direct Lending and GP Capital Solutions business segments. Its investor base includes a diversified mix of institutional investors, including public and private pension funds, endowments, foundations, family offices, private banks, high net worth individuals, asset managers and insurance companies.

Executives

Blue Pool Capital Ltd	10 percent owner	25/F HYSAN PLACE, 500 HENNESSY ROAD, CAUSEWAY BAY K3 NA
Marc Zahr	director, officer: Pres. of Oak Street Div.	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Claudia A Holz	director	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Augustus, Llc	director	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Koch Industries Inc	10 percent owner	4111 EAST 37TH STREET NORTH, WICHITA KS 67220
Icq Bb Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	394 PACIFIC AVENUE, 2ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Kevin L Beebe	other: See remarks.	ONE ALLIED DRIVE, LITTLE ROCK AR 72202
Co-investment Portfolio 2021, L.p.	10 percent owner	394 PACIFIC AVENUE, SECOND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Glide Path Solutions 2021, L.p.	10 percent owner	394 PACIFIC AVENUE, SECOND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Bb Holdings Aa Lp	10 percent owner	50 BEALE STREET, SUITE 2300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Andrew Robert Polland	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew Charles Laurino	officer: Senior Managing Director	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew Steven Komaroff	director	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Junot Foradada	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Dana Weeks Ugwonali	director	C/O BLUE OWL CAPITAL INC., 399 PARK AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022