Oxford Square Capital (Oxford Square Capital) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2003. Start your Free Trial

What is Oxford Square Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Oxford Square Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Oxford Square Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Oxford Square Capital's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Oxford Square Capital (Oxford Square Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Oxford Square Capital Corp (NAS:OXSQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

22T:Germany 22T:Germany

Address

8 Sound Shore Drive, Suite 255, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830

Website

https://www.oxfordsquarecapital.com

Oxford Square Capital Corp is a closed-end, non-diversified management investment company with a focus is to seek an attractive risk-adjusted total return by investing in corporate debt securities and collateralized loan obligation (CLO) structured finance investments that own corporate debt securities. its capital is generally used by its corporate borrowers to finance organic growth, acquisitions, recapitalizations, and working capital. The group invests in various industries such as Structured Finance, IT Consulting, Business Services, Utilities, Software, Healthcare, Telecommunication Services, Plastics Manufacturing, and Diversified Insurance.

Executives

Saul B Rosenthal	officer: COO, Secretary and Treasurer	8 SOUND SHORE DR STE 215, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jonathan H Cohen	director, officer: CEO, President and Director	8 SOUND SHORE DR STE 215, GREENWICH CT 06830
Barry Osherow	director	8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 255, GREENWICH CT 06830
Steven P Novak	director	3031 TISCH WAY, STE 900, SAN JOSE CA 95128
George Iii Stelljes	director	C/O GLADSTONE CAPITAL CORP, 1521 WESTBRANCH DRIVE SUITE 200, MCLEAN VA 22102
Richard W Neu	director	1100 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE 3000, ARLINGTON VA 22209
Bruce L. Rubin	officer: CFO, CAO, SEC, TREAS	TICC CAPITAL CORP., 8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 255, GREENWICH CT 06830
Gerald Cummins	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	C/O OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP., 8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE, SUITE 255, GREENWICH CT 06830
Patrick Conroy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	8 SOUND SHORE DRIVE STE 215, GREENWICH CT 06830
Tonia L Pankopf	director	8 SOUND SHORE DR STE 215, GREENWICH CT 06830
Charles M Royce	director	C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
G Peter Obrien	director	C/O ROYCE & ASSOCIATES, LLC, 745 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10151
Lee D Stern	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O AECOM TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION, 555 S. FLOWER STREET, SUITE 3700, LOS ANGELES CA 90071