Poniard Pharmaceuticals (Poniard Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Poniard Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Poniard Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Poniard Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Poniard Pharmaceuticals (Poniard Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Poniard Pharmaceuticals Inc (OTCPK:PARD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

300 Elliott Avenue West, Suite 530, Seattle, CA, USA, 98119

Website

http://www.poniard.com

Poniard Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company engaged in the development and commercialization of cancer therapeutics. Its product candidate is picoplatin, a new generation platinum-based cancer therapy.

Executives

Michael S Perry	officer: President & CMO	C/O BIOTRANSPLANT INC, 196 BOSTON AVE SUITE 2800, MEDFORD MA 02155
Ron Martell	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	PONIARD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 750 BATTERY STREET, SUITE 330, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Gary A Lyons	director	12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
David R Stevens	director	300 ELLIOTT AVENUE WEST, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98119-4114
Gerald Phd Mcmahon	director	300 ELLIOTT AVENUE WEST, SUITE 500, SEATTLE WA 98119-4114
Carl Goldfischer	director	161 WEST 61ST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Fred B Craves	director	750 BATTERY ST, STE 600, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Simon Nicholas J Iii	director, 10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Gregory L Weaver	officer: Chief Financial Officer	185 BERRY STREET, SUITE 6504, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Kurt Wheeler	10 percent owner	801 GATEWAY BLVD, STE 410, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mpm Asset Management Investors 2005 Bviii Llc	10 percent owner	C/O MPM ASSET MANAGEMENT, 111 HUNTINGTON AVENUE 31ST FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02199
Nicholas Galakatos	10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Dennis Henner	10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Michael Steinmetz	10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Luke Evnin	10 percent owner	THE JOHN HANCOCK TOWER, 200 CLARENDON STREET, 54TH STREET, BOSTON MA 02116

Poniard Pharmaceuticals (Poniard Pharmaceuticals) Headlines

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