Par Pacific Holdings (Par Pacific Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Par Pacific Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Par Pacific Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Par Pacific Holdings (Par Pacific Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Par Pacific Holdings Inc (NYSE:PARR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

61P:Germany

Address

825 Town & Country Lane, Suite 1500, Houston, TX, USA, 77024

Website

https://www.parpacific.com

Par Pacific Holdings Inc is an oil and gas company that manages and maintains interests in energy and infrastructure businesses. The company has three reportable segments namely Refining, Under its refining business, the company produces ultra-low-sulfur diesel, gasoline, jet fuel, marine fuel, LSFO, and other associated refined products. Its Retail includes operation licenses out brands to serve the retail consumer. Through the Logistics segment, crude shipments are delivered to the refinery, in addition to finished products that are exported. It generates maximum revenue from the Refining segment.

Executives

William Pate	director
Shawn David Flores	officer: See Remarks	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LN., SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024
William Monteleone	director, officer: Senior VP of M&A	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Jeffrey Ryan Hollis	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 825, HOUSTON TX 77024
Patricia Martinez	director	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Aaron Zell	director	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Danielle Mattiussi	officer: See Remarks	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Jim Yates	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE MEMORIAL PLAZA, 800 GESSNER ROAD SUITE 875, HOUSTON TX 77024
L Melvin Cooper	director	2930 W. SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY N, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77043
Chai Trust Co Llc	10 percent owner	TWO NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Zell Credit Opportunities Master Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	2 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 600, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ivan Daniel Guerra	officer: Corporate Controller	800 GESSNER RD., SUITE 875, HOUSTON TX 77024
Richard Creamer	officer: See Remarks	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024
Melvyn N Klein	director	615 UPPER BROADWAY, STE 1940, CORPUS CHRISTI TX 78477
Phillip S Davidson	director	825 TOWN & COUNTRY LANE, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77024