Performance Food Group Co (Performance Food Group Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Performance Food Group Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Performance Food Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Performance Food Group Co (Performance Food Group Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Performance Food Group Co (NYSE:PFGC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

P5F:Germany

Address

12500 West Creek Parkway, Richmond, VA, USA, 23238

Website

https://www.pfgc.com

Performance Food Group Co is the third-largest U.S. food-service distributor behind Sysco and us Foods, with 9% market share. PFG's food-service business (52% of 2022 sales) provides customized food products and services (such as product selection and procurement) to independent and chain restaurants, and institutional customers. Acquisitions of Eby-Brown (2019) and Core-Mark (2021) enabled PFG to tap into the convenience store segment (41% of sales), offering convenience products, marketing programs, and technology solutions to convenience stores, drug stores, and other such channels. The firm's Vistar business (7% of sales) is a national distributor of candy, snacks, and beverages to vending and office coffee service distributors, theaters, and hospitality providers.

Executives

David V Singer	director	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PL, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Patrick T. Hagerty	officer: See Remarks	C/O PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP COMPANY, 12500 WEST CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
George L Holm	director, officer: See Remarks	3000 69TH STREET EAST, PALMETTO FL 34221
Donald S. Bulmer	officer: See Remarks	12500 WEST CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Craig Howard Hoskins	officer: See Remarks	C/O PERFORMANCE FOOD GROUP COMPANY, 12500 WEST CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Hugh Patrick Hatcher	officer: See Remarks	12500 WEST CREEK PARKWAY, RICHMOND VA 23238
Christine R Vlahcevic	officer: See Remarks	1021 EAST CARY STREET, PO BOX 2350, RICHMOND VA 23218-2350
Kimberly Grant	director	150 WEST CHURCH AVENUE, MARYVILLE TN 37801
Scott E Mcpherson	officer: See Remarks	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 415, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Matthew C Flanigan	director	LEGGETT & PLATT INC, NO 1 LEGGETT ROAD, CARTHAGE MO 64836
Laura Jean Flanagan	director	395 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 415, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
James D Hope	officer: See Remarks	1390 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Warren M Thompson	director	4951 LAKE BROOK DRIVE, SUITE 500, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060
Barbara Beck	director	5301 N IRONWOOD RD, MILWAUKEE WI 53217
Erika T Davis	officer: See Remarks