P10 Holdings (P10 Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is P10 Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

P10 Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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P10 Holdings (P10 Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » P10 Holdings Inc (OTCPK:PIOE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4514 Cole Avenue, Suite 160, Dallas, TX, USA, 75205

Website

https://www.p10holdings.com

P10 Holdings Inc is an asset management company. Its existing portfolio of solutions across private equity, venture capital, private credit, and impact investing support its mission by offering a comprehensive set of investment vehicles to its investors, including primary fund of funds, secondary investment, direct investment, and co-investments, alongside separate accounts. The company generates the majority of its revenue from Management & advisory fees.

Executives

Mark C Hood	director	C/O CROSSROADS SYSTEMS, INC., 11000 N. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY #150, AUSTIN TX 78759
C Clark Webb	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, DALLAS TX 75225
Robert H Alpert	director	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, DALLAS TX 75225
210 Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	8214 WESTCHESTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, DALLAS TX 75225
Perlus Microcap Fund L.p.	10 percent owner	CRICKET SQUARE, HUTCHINS DRIVE, P.O. BOX 268, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1111
James Powers	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2128 W. BRAKER LANE, BK12, AUSTIN TX 78758
Steven R Fife	officer: CFO and VP of Finance	C/O LECG 2000 POWELL STREET, STE 600, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Martin T. Olsen	officer: VP of Global Sales and Mktg	2128 W. BRAKER LANE BK12, AUSTIN TX 78758
Stephen J Clearman	director, 10 percent owner	ONE EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 160, FORT LEE NJ 07024
John K Penver	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3709 HUMBLE COVE, AUSTIN TX 78730
Kinderhook Partners L P	10 percent owner	ONE EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 160, SUITE 160, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Kinderhook Gp Llc	10 percent owner
Tushar Shah	10 percent owner	ONE EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 160, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Kinderhook Capital Management, Llc	10 percent owner	2 EXECUTIVE DRIVE, SUITE 585, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Brad Boston	director	C/O MERCURY INTERACTIVE CORPORATION, 379 N. WHISMAN ROAD, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043