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Planet Green Holdings (Planet Green Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is Planet Green Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Planet Green Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Planet Green Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Planet Green Holdings (Planet Green Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Planet Green Holdings Corp (AMEX:PLAG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ZHYBF NAII RGF ATPC CTGL PAVS HOJI UMEWF NCRA PETZ XSWX:NESN KHC XPAR:BN GIS NSE:NESTLEIND SHSE:603288 SZSE:300999 SHSE:600887 LSE:ABF BIMBOA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
130-30 31st Avenue, Suite 512, Flushing, NY, USA, 11354
Website
https://www.planetgreenholdings.com
Planet Green Holdings Corp is a diversified technology and consumer products company with a presence in North America and China engaged in Chemical Products, Tea Products, and Online Advertising Services. The company operates in three segments namely to grow, produce and distribute Cyan brick tea, black tea, and green tea in China; to research, develop, manufacture, and sell chemical products including formaldehyde, urea formaldehyde adhesive, methylal, ethanol fuel, fuel additives and clean fuel in China; and to develop and operate a demand-side platform which empowers buyers of advertising to manage and optimize their digital advertising across different real-time bidding networks in North America and China.
Executives
Xiangtian Aerodynamic Electricity Ltd. 10 percent owner FLOOR 18, DONGHOU TOWER, AIGUO ROAD, LUOHU DISTRICT, SHENZHEN F4 518128
Bin Zhou director SUITE 901 BUILDING 6 NO. 1678, JINSHAJIANG ROAD, PUTUO DISTRICT F4 200000
Yang Cao director 9841 WASHINGTONIAN BLVD, SUITE 200, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
King Fai Leung director SUITE 901, BUILDING 6, NO. 1678, JINSHAJIANG ROAD, PUTUO DISTRICT, SHANGHAI F4 200333
Lili Hu officer: Chief Financial Officer BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COUNTY, SHANDONG F4 276600
Daqi Cui officer: Chief Operating Officer BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COUNTY, SHANDONG F4 276600
Chao Chen director SUITE 901 BLDG 6 NO 1678, JINSHAJIANG ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 100006
Hongxiang Yu director, officer: CEO BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COUNTY, SHANDONG F4 276600
Yimin Jin director, officer: Chief Strategy Officer BEIHUANZHONG JUNAN COURT, SHANDONG F4 276600
Yu Li officer: CFO BEIHUANZHONG ROAD, JUNAN COURT, SHANDONG F4 276600
Yilei Shao director BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COURT, SHANDONG F4 276600
Yuguo Zhang director BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COUNTY, SHANDONG F4 276600
Guangming Fang director BEIHUANZHONG ROAD JUNAN COURT, SHANDONG F4 276600
Fw 10 percent owner PALMENGARTENSTRASSE, 5-9, FRANKFURT AM MAIN 2M 60325
Deg - Deutsche Investitions- Und Entwicklungsgesellschaft Mbh 10 percent owner KAMMERGASSE 22, KOLN 2M 50676