Psychemedics (Psychemedics) Predictability Rank

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What is Psychemedics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Psychemedics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Psychemedics (Psychemedics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Diagnostics & Research » Psychemedics Corp (NAS:PMD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

289 Great Road, Suite 200, Acton, MA, USA, 01720

Website

https://www.psychemedics.com

Psychemedics Corp is engaged in providing testing services for the detection of drugs of abuse through the analysis of hair samples. The company operates through a single segment of drug testing services which include training for the collection of samples and storage of positive samples for its customers for an agreed-upon fee per unit testing of samples. The testing methods of the company utilize a patented technology that digests the hair and releases drugs trapped in the hair without destroying the drugs. Geographically it generates the majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

Shannon Shoemaker	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	289 GREAT ROAD, SUITE 200, ACTON MA 01720
Charles M Doucot	officer: Executive Vice President	289 GREAT ROAD, SUITE 200, ACTON MA 01720
Andrew Reynolds	director	C/O FLEETMATICS, 1100 WINTER STREET, 4TH FL, WALTHAM MA 02451
Brian Hullinger	director, officer: President & CEO	289 GREAT ROAD, SUITE 200, ACTON MA 01720
Robyn C Davis	director	ONE WALLINGFORD ROAD, MARBLEHEAD MA 01945
Michael Weisenhoff	other: Assistant Controller	289 GREAT ROAD, SUITE 200, ACTON MA 01720
Michael I Schaffer	officer: VP of Laboratory Operations	C/O PAYCHEMEDICS CORP, 1280 MASSACHUSETTS AVE STE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
William B. Norris	other: Assistant Controller	289 GREAT ROAD, SUITE 200, ACTON MA 01720
Darius G Nevin	other: See Footnote 1	C/O WCI COMMUNITIES, INC., 24301 WALDEN CENTER DRIVE, BONITA SPRINGS FL 34134
Peter H Kamin	10 percent owner	2720 DONALD ROSS ROAD, #311, PALM BEACH GARDENS FL 33410
Andrew Limbek	officer: Vice President & Controller	289 GREAT ROAD, SUITE 200, ACTON MA 01720
Fred J Weinert	director	330 E MAIN ST, BARRINGTON IL 60620
Kubacki Raymond C Jr	director, officer: Chairman, CEO & President	125 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720
A Clinton Allen	director, officer: Chairman	1280 MASSACHUSETTS AVE STE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Neil Lerner	officer: VP - Finance	C/O PSYCHEMEDICS CORPORATION, 125 NAGOG PARK, ACTON MA 01720