Pennant Park Investment (Pennant Park Investment) Predictability Rank

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What is Pennant Park Investment Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pennant Park Investment Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pennant Park Investment (Pennant Park Investment) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Pennant Park Investment Corp (NYSE:PNNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

12P:Germany

Address

1691 Michigan Avenue, Miami Beach, FL, USA, 33139

Website

https://www.pennantpark.com

Pennant Park Investment Corp is a closed-end, non-diversified investment company. Its investment objective is to generate current income and capital appreciation also seeking to preserve capital through debt and equity investments. The company focuses on investing in United States middle-market companies that offer attractive risk-reward to investors and to create a diversified portfolio that includes senior secured debt, mezzanine debt, and equity investments. It generates majority of its revenue from interest and dividends received from investments made.

Executives

Jose A Briones	director	55 PLEASANTVILLE ROAD, NEW VERNON NJ 07976
Samuel L Katz	director	9 WEST 57TH ST, NEW YORK NY 10019
Arthur H Penn	officer: Chairman and CEO / Investment
Allorto Richard T Jr	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 1350 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10019
Richard Cheung	officer: See Remarks	C/O CAREY CREDIT INCOME FUND, 330 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Aviv Efrat	officer: CFO and Treasurer	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Adam K Bernstein	director	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Jeffrey Flug	director	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Pennantpark Investment Corp	director, officer: Chairman and CEO/, other: Investment Adviser	590 MADISON AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marshall Brozost	director	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Williams P Whitridge Jr	other: Investment Adviser	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Salvatore Iii Giannetti	other: Investment Adviser	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Geoffrey S Chang	other: Investment Adviser	C/O PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT ADVISERS, 445 PARK AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022