Porsche Automobil Holding SE (Porsche Automobil Holding SE) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2008. Start your Free Trial

What is Porsche Automobil Holding SE Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Porsche Automobil Holding SE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Porsche Automobil Holding SE Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Porsche Automobil Holding SE's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Porsche Automobil Holding SE (Porsche Automobil Holding SE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Porsche Automobil Holding SE (OTCPK:POAHY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

POAHF:USA PAH3:Mexico 1PAH:Italy PAH3d:UK 0JHU:UK PAH3:Germany PAH3:Austria

Address

Porscheplatz 1, Stuttgart, BW, DEU, 70435

Website

https://www.porsche-se.com

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is an automotive holdings company. The company's core investment is a controlling stake in Volkswagen AG. Through this stake, Porsche SE has an interest in passenger and luxury car manufacturers which include Volkswagen, Audi, SEAT, SKODA, Bentley, Bugatti, Lamborghini, and Porsche; motorcycles under the Ducati brand name; and commercial vehicles under Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles, Scania, and MAN. In addition to the automobile manufacturers, this core investment provides Porsche Automobil exposure to the Volkswagen Financial Services financing business. Porsche SE also has a minority stake in technology company INRIX, a company that provides connected-car services and real-time traffic information.

Porsche Automobil Holding SE (Porsche Automobil Holding SE) Headlines

From GuruFocus

5 Things to Consider in Position Sizing

By Bram de Haas Bram de Haas • 07-19-2019

Porsche Planning EV To Take On Tesla

By Business Reports Business Reports • 03-23-2015

Steven Romick Drives Out Porsche Holding in 1st Quarter

By James Li James Li • 04-22-2021

Dial P911 for Value in Porsche and VW

By Smead Capital Management • 11-01-2022

Volkswagen and Porsche Restructuring, Takeover?

By Muhammad Bazil Muhammad Bazil • 07-14-2012

Francisco Garcia Parames Drives Away With Porsche, Exits Energy Transfer

By Sydnee Gatewood • 02-03-2023

'The New Buffettology': Finding Durable Competitive Advantages

By Robert Abbott Robert Abbott • 09-17-2018

Steven Romick Sells Short Volkswagen in 3rd Quarter

By James Li James Li • 10-09-2017