Predictive Oncology (Predictive Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Predictive Oncology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Predictive Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Predictive Oncology (Predictive Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Predictive Oncology Inc (NAS:POAI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2915 Commers Drive, Suite 900, Eagan, MN, USA, 55121

Website

https://www.predictive-oncology.com

Predictive Oncology Inc functions in the healthcare domain. The firm's reportable segments are Helomics, zPREDICTA, Soluble and Skyline. It derives prime revenue from the Skyline segment which consists of the STREAMWAY System product sales, and TumorGenesis subsidiary (Research and Development) is included within corporate. The STREAMWAY System virtually eliminates staff exposure to blood, irrigation fluid, and other potentially infectious fluids found in the healthcare environment. Its Helomics division is focused on improving the effectiveness of cancer therapy using proprietary, multi-omic tumor profiling platform, a one-of-a-kind database of historical tumor data, and the power of AI to build predictive models of tumor drug response.

Executives

Robert L Myers	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	4765 BEACON HILL ROAD, EAGAN MN 55122
Nuzum Charles Lee Sr	director	633 1ST STREET WEST, SONOMA CA 95476
Veena Rao	director	2915 COMMERS DRIVE, SUITE 900, EAGAN MN 55121
Matthew Hawryluk	director	C/O GRITSTONE ONCOLOGY, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET, SUITE 210, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
St. Clair Gregory Sr	director	1645 WHITLEY DRIVE, HARRISBURG PA 17111
Nancy Chung-welch	director	P O BOX 1572, PEPPERELL MA 01463
Pamela Bush	officer: Chief Business Officer	2915 COMMERS DRIVE, SUITE 900, EAGAN MN 55121
Daniel E Handley	director	1142 S. DIAMOND BAR BLVD. #464, DIAMOND BAR CA 91765
Raymond F Vennare	director	2915 COMMERS DRIVE, SUITE 900, EAGAN MN 55121
David Stewart Smith	director	151 WASHINGTON STREET, PITTSBURGH PA 15218
J Melville Engle	director	1 REMINGTON COURT, NAPA CA 94558
Jenkins Christina Lee Md	director	2915 COMMERS DRIVE, SUITE 900, EAGAN MN 55121
Carl I. Schwartz	10 percent owner	20155 N.E. 38TH COURT, UNIT 3104, AVENTURA FL 33180
Richard L Gabriel	director	900 COCOANUT AVENUE, SARASOTA FL 34236
Pamela S Prior	director	2915 COMMERS DRIVE, SUITE 900, EAGAN MN 55121